Houston's Larger Ballot Gaps Put It Ahead of Louisville

Houston is No. 10 in the AP men's basketball preseason poll, seven points ahead of No. 11 Louisville. Yet Poll Behavior's comparison of the 59 recorded ballots finds Louisville higher on 34 and Houston higher on 25.

Houston's favorable ballots supply larger ranking gaps. Those differences outweigh Louisville's advantage in the number of voters placing it ahead, producing Houston's 829 points to Louisville's 822 in the October 19 ranking.

Every voter included both teams. That makes this a complete comparison of their positions across the same panel: Houston ranges from fourth through 18th, while Louisville ranges from sixth through 19th. Omissions contribute no part of the seven-point difference.

How 25 Ballots Outweigh 34

AP awards 25 points for first place, 24 for second and one fewer for each lower position. Whenever two teams appear on the same ballot, the distance between their ranks equals the difference in the points they receive from that voter. A one-place advantage contributes one point to the margin; a five-place advantage contributes five.

On the 25 ballots placing Houston higher, its advantages add up to 127 ranking places. That is an average gap of 5.08 positions per favorable ballot. On the 34 ballots placing Louisville higher, its advantages total 120 places, averaging 3.53.

Subtracting Louisville's 120 from Houston's 127 gives the seven-point margin exactly. Both teams receive points on all 59 ballots, so the calculation accounts for every contribution to their final separation.

The 34–25 count is Poll Behavior's calculation from the submitted rankings. AP's published order comes from adding each team's points across the full ballots, including the size of every placement difference. Each voter contributes once to our comparison, but contributes a different point margin according to the two positions submitted.

Counting which team is higher gives Louisville the advantage more often. Keeping the size of those advantages gives Houston the larger total. The distinction determines this boundary of the Top 10: Houston's smaller group of favorable ballots supports it by enough additional places to overcome Louisville's more frequent, smaller leads.