Duke
MichiganReported Analysis · AP Women's Basketball · 2026–27 Preseason
Duke Edges Michigan by Three Points Despite a 17–14 Ballot Split
By Poll Behavior ·
DukeNo. 4MichiganNo. 5Duke begins fourth in the AP women's basketball preseason poll, three points ahead of Michigan. More voters put the Wolverines higher: 17 of the 31 recorded ballots favor Michigan in a direct comparison, against 14 for Duke.
The Blue Devils' favorable ballots contain larger gaps in the two teams' positions. Those gaps produce 647 points to Michigan's 644 in the October 20 ranking, giving Duke the higher aggregate finish despite Michigan's more frequent advantage.
Both teams appear on every ballot. Duke ranges from second through 10th; Michigan ranges from third through 19th. Michigan has more top-five placements, 23 to Duke's 20, alongside the wider spread.
Where the Three Points Come From
AP awards 25 points for first, 24 for second and one fewer for every lower position. When both teams appear on a ballot, their separation in ranking places equals the difference in the points that voter awards them.
| Higher Team | Ballots | Total Advantage in Places |
|---|---|---|
| Duke | 14 | 40 |
| Michigan | 17 | 37 |
Duke's 14 favorable ballots supply 40 points of advantage. Michigan's 17 supply 37. Subtracting the two totals gives Duke's three-point lead, with all 31 ballots accounted for. The number of favorable comparisons alone leaves out the size of each margin.
The adjacent ranks also mark unusually high preseason expectations for these programs. Duke's release identifies No. 4 as its best preseason position since opening 2013–14 second. The Blue Devils return three starters and nine players after winning both the ACC regular-season and tournament titles.
Michigan's release identifies No. 5 as its best preseason ranking, surpassing No. 11 in 2021–22. All five leading scorers return from last season's Elite Eight team. That continuity gives the Wolverines a substantial returning core as they open at their new preseason high.
The narrow fourth/fifth boundary is determined by accumulated placement gaps. Michigan finishes ahead more often, while Duke's less frequent advantages are large enough to decide the official order.
Sources & Methodology
Complete poll and ballots; preseason Insights; official Duke and Michigan releases, both October 20, 2026. Poll Behavior calculated the pairwise count and summed favorable ranking gaps from the same 31 ballots, each containing both teams. Program ranking records here concern preseason polls. The 17–14 comparison is our calculation from the submitted rankings, not a separate official vote or game result.
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Duke Edges Michigan by Three Points Despite a 17–14 Ballot Split
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